Throughout history, every now and then, the unprecedented happens. Certainly, the year 2020 has been just that.
Entering 2021, forecasting the exact profile of the growth path ahead is difficult, but we expect the global economy to continue to grow strongly and make up lost ground, especially as the hope of a large-scale vaccinations look increasingly likely. Governments are likely to continue with their support measures, aiding both consumers and businesses. Central banks are expected to be supportive for as far as the eye can see, underpinning economic activity via easy financial conditions.
One of the big uncertainties concerns whether those economies will get back to where they would have been had the virus never hit. In other words, will there be any permanent damage to developed world economies? It is too early to tell. Increased debt may potentially hold back the economy for years to come, while accelerated technology use and development may ultimately boost the economy. Regardless of whether there is permanent damage, when those economies do recover they will look different, with some sectors and businesses winning, and some losing. One possible long-term effect we believe can come of the COVID-19 shutdowns will be an acceleration in some structural changes.
We invite you to get our perspective on how 2020 is shaping 2021, their global and regional economic impact, viewpoints on markets and how investor can set themselves up for the next year.