Mercer Canada | Economic and Market Outlook 2016 and Beyond

The Global Economy

Economic and Market Outlook 2016 and Beyond

What do we foresee for 2016? We continue to expect the developed world economy to grow at an above-trend pace, having mostly resolved the key issues that depressed growth over the last few years: fiscal tightening, weak banking systems, risk of eurozone collapse, and corporate- and personal-sector deleveraging.

But there are risks on the horizon, too. 2015 marks the year the Fed raised rates for the first time in over a decade. How quickly will the Fed continue raise rates, and how will that affect financial markets and the economies of developing countries? We expect the impact would be significant. 

"Diverging forces: normalization in US and UK, stimulation in Japan and the eurozone, and challenges in emerging economies"

As is always the case, our forecast is made up of a number of risks. While quantifying all risks that could affect economies and markets in a given year is impossible, we’ve identified and analyzed five main risks for 2016: 

  1. The Fed gets aggressive
  2. EM crisis
  3. European fragmentation
  4. Geopolitical shock
  5. Productivity

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